Emmy Predictions: Who Should Win, Who Will Win

Can 'The Sopranos' go out on top? Will 'Ugly Betty' be sitting pretty? We've got Emmy questions. And Tom O'Neil, star blogger for the Los Angeles Times' awards site The Envelope, has Emmy answers. Dive in as he separates contenders from pretenders in this year's top races.

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Best Series, Drama

Should Win: 'The Sopranos' because the series -- widely considered the greatest TV show ever -- hasn't muscled in on enough Emmy gold (and its only best drama victory came in 2004) Will Win: 'The Sopranos,' even though series rarely win after they're off the air; Only the docs of 'Grey's Anatomy' have a shot at bumping off the mobsters this time around.

Best Actor, Drama

Should Win: Hugh Laurie ('House') portrays TV's cranky, opiate-addicted doctor with such sensitivity that you just have to love him. Will Win: James Gandolfini ('The Sopranos'), because voters know they need to pay their respects to the departing boss

Best Actress, Drama

Should Win: Minnie Driver ('The Riches') is aces as a trash-talking con artist who pretends to be fancy folk. Will Win: Edie Falco ('The Sopranos'), because her mafia momma really is fancy folk; She's a TV queen at the end of her reign, and she deserves a bow.

Best Supporting Actor, Drama

Should Win: Michael Imperioli ('The Sopranos') gave a 200-proof performance when he fell off the wagon, got drunk and shot a pal in the head. No wonder Tony offed him. Will Win: Imperioli ('The Sopranos'), because Hollywood loves a good boy who wants to quit the mafia for respectable work ... like producing slasher films.

Best Supporting Actress, Drama

Should Win: Lorraine Bracco ('The Sopranos') deserves this consolation prize for humbly dropping down to the supporting category after losing three times in the lead race. Will Win: Sandra Oh ('Grey's Anatomy') is overdue, too, and she gave a more vulnerable, heartfelt performance.

Best Series, Comedy

Should Win: 'Ugly Betty' is TV's most outrageous comedy, but it's too campy for many voters, who are mostly older guys. Will Win: '30 Rock' is a savage parody of the TV biz -- which makes it irresistible to the voters who work in the industry. (Upset possibility: that other crazy workplace, 'The Office.')

Best Actor, Comedy

Should Win: Steve Carell ('The Office.') gives a brilliant performance as a perfect idiot. Will Win: Alec Baldwin ('30 Rock'), and only in part because voters want to see if he'll thank his daughter in his acceptance speech

Best Actress, Comedy

Should Win: 'Ugly Betty's' America Ferrera is really 'America the Beautiful' -- as an actress and as last season's brightest new star. Will Win: Ferrera; Face it, the 'Ugly' gal is sittin' pretty.

Best Supporting Actor, Comedy

Should Win: Rainn Wilson ('The Office.'), because his skulking, over-the-top Dwight is every cubicle-dweller's worst nightmare. Will Win: Jeremy Piven ('Entourage'), because his hateful, heartless Ari is every Hollywooders dream agent.

Best Supporting Actress, Comedy

Should Win: Vanessa Williams ('Ugly Betty') is TV's most fabulous dragon since Joan Collins in 'Dynasty.' Will Win: Jenna Fischer ('The Office'), whose Pam captures Emmy voters' hearts with her bittersweet yearning for Jim (John Krasinski).

Best Reality Competition Program

Should Win: 'Top Chef' has whipped up the perfect reality recipe, adding spicy drama to a TV cooking show. Will Win: 'American Idol,' finally; If 'Idol' falters, then TV's biggest show will become Emmy's biggest loser—with a whopping 29 defeats across multiple categories.

Best Variety Series

Should Win: 'The Colbert Report' really ought to beat the less-great program from which it was spun off, but 'til then ... Will Win: 'The Daily Show with Jon Stewart' will keep getting the last laugh, claiming this category once again.

Tom O'Neil, author of 'The Emmys' and other entertainment books, writes the Gold Derby blog for The Envelope, the awards show Web site produced by The Los Angeles Times.